Another Week, Another Bad Trend for Net TV

Something disturbing has developed in the world of network TV.

OK, so name a week when that sentence doesn't apply.

This week's pattern that has emerged is the rise of Univision. Or maybe not so much the rise of Univision, as the collapse of ABC and NBC to below Univision levels.

This past Monday the finale of SUPERSTARS OF DANCE and the second part of KNIGHTS TEMPLAR finished 5th in their time slots in Adults 18-49 and Adults 18-34. The good news is that NBC managed to beat reruns on the CW.

Tuesday, ABC's HOMELAND SECURITY USA trailed UNI's CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL in A-18-49 & 18-34, while SCRUBS trailed FUEGO EN LA SANGRE in total viewers by 30,000 people.

Wednesday, CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL beat everything but AMERICAN IDOL in the demos during the first hour of prime time. A Katie Couris news special, a new KNIGHT RIDER, a rerun of last week's LOST and a repeat of PRIVELEGED were all dispatched by Spanish language telenovela.

And it's not like CIUDADO is a ratings blockbuster. It's winning with a 2.1 rating. The other nets can't make it to a 2 against IDOL? Ouch.

SANGRE bumped UNI's performance up to a 2.4 18-34 demo rating and beat a repeat of CRIMINAL MINDS, LAW & ORDER and 90210.

At 10/9c DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA beat LIFE ON MARS and a rerun of CSI: NY with a 1.6 rating in 18-34.

It doesn't end there.

Thursday, with a special edition of IDOL in the mix, it's more of the same.

CIUDADO came within one tenth of a point of catching a second place rerun of CRIMINAL MINDS in A18-49. In 18-34s, it beat CRIMINAL MINDS by a good 8 tenths. That's a substantial margin when 2nd place only scores a 2.3.

So what are we seeing here?

1) Network reruns have almost ZERO appeal to 18-34 year olds who are being trained by these very same networks to go online to catch episiodes the miss?

2) UNIVISION represents a growing Latino market. Not proven. UNI's success seems to have an upper limit. It's the other nets collapse that is the equalizer here.

3) IDOL destroys everything in its path when it coms to 18-34s. Not mentioned above are the 8s and 9s in 18-34 compared to everyone else's 2s and 1.5s

What do you think?

ABC's Turn

Upfront week continues....

While NBC seems to have decided the route to success means little innovation, ABC seems to be taking a different track.

MON - DANCING WTH THE STARS, SAM I AM, THE BACHELOR - That's a reality competition, a sitcom starring Christina Applegate as an amnesia victim who wasn't a very nice person before her condition, and an aging relationship/reality piece of poo. (Wonder what would happen if Sam I Am hooked up with My Name Is Earl....)

TUE - CAVEMEN, CARPOOLERS, DANCING RESULTS and BOSTON LEGAL - a sitcom based on a commercial (which is getting VERY bad buzz on Madison Avenue) a comedy about guys who share a ride to work, more DANCING and an solid lawyer show.

WED - PUSHING DAISIES, PRIVATE PRACTICE, DIRTY SEXY MONEY - An entire night of new shows! Wow! That's a drama about a fellow who solves crimes by temporarily bringing the victims back to life (GHOST WHISPERER meets CSI), a spinoff from GREY'S ANATOMY and
a soap about the lawyer of a rich and powerful family. LOST will return at a time period 'to be announced' on this night in January.

THUR - UGLY BETTY, GREY'S ANATOMY and BIG SHOTS - Two successes and a soap about powerful CEO's who are putty in their wife's hands. Surprised that PRIVATE PRACTICE didn't get this slot.

FRI - MEN IN TREES, WOMEN'S MURDER CLUB, 20/20 - That's a so-so chick drama, better suited to pairing up with GREY'S or HOUSEWIVES, a new show about four women who use their collective professional expertise to solve crime, and a newsmag.

SAT - COLLEGE FOOTBALL - 'nuff said.

SUN - AMERICA'S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEOS, EXTREME MAKEOVER: HOME EDITION, DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES, BROTHERS & SISTERS - No changes, a wise decision.

My take, SAM I AM will have a great led-in, but that 9:30/8:30c start time could be trouble.

CAVEMEN is a horrible idea - Geico is actually going to pull the great ad campaign for the two weeks this show will be on the air.

CARPOOLERS will struggle as a result of its lead-in.

DAISIES could be interesting - might be a tough TiVo choice is FOX keeps BONES in that slot.

The only other ABC show I come close to watching is FUNNIEST HOME VIDEOS. Is it me or is ABC slowly becoming a chick drama network? Doesn't mean it's not working, though.

5 hours of non-scripted reality stuff - 22% (36% if you count football)

Repurposed programming - ZERO

Reruns - ZERO

(See, NBC? It can be done.)

More to come...

Bells Silenced, Heaven Closed

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised....

After a complete lack of faith in linear storytelling (see previous post) FOX has cancelled THE WEDDING BELLS.

With just 6 of the 13 episode order in the can, FOX has shut the show down.

Also today, ABC canned SIX DEGREES (one week after returning from hiatus), THE CW announced the end of 7TH HEAVEN and NBC is dropping THE BLACK DONNELLYS in favor of another piece of crap reality show.

FOX Takes the Lead

Last year FOX passed ABC for the full season victory in Adults 18-49 with about three days left in the season.

That's akin to a NASCAR driver taking the lead for the first time with 2 laps left in the Daytona 500.

It's like Joe Montana driving the 49ers down the field with 30 seconds left in the game to score the game winning touchdown.

The point is, it was a last second lead change and it was a bit dramatic. The entirety of the broadcast industry could see it coming, the momentum was palatable.

This year, things are very different. After an early strong start, ABC has stumbled badly since the turn of the calendar year. CBS scored well with the Super Bowl, but couldn't even turn that powerhouse event into a February sweeps win. NBC hasn't been a contender all year long.

Last night FOX tied CBS for the lead in Adults 18-49. Tonight, on the strength of a two hour episode of AMERICAN IDOL, FOX will pass CBS for first place.

This lead change was every bit as predictable as last year, the momentum has been just as palatable. The difference is this year, it's happening at the end of the 3rd quarter. There are still eleven weeks left in the season and none of FOX's competitors have an answer for FOX's passing game.

By the two minute warning, not only are we going to be looking at a blowout - but it will be painfully clear that the competition has no answer for how to stop FOX next year.

This is the third straight year FOX will have won or tied for first place in Adults 18-49.

In sports terms - that's a dynasty, baby!