Another Week, Another Bad Trend for Net TV

Something disturbing has developed in the world of network TV.

OK, so name a week when that sentence doesn't apply.

This week's pattern that has emerged is the rise of Univision. Or maybe not so much the rise of Univision, as the collapse of ABC and NBC to below Univision levels.

This past Monday the finale of SUPERSTARS OF DANCE and the second part of KNIGHTS TEMPLAR finished 5th in their time slots in Adults 18-49 and Adults 18-34. The good news is that NBC managed to beat reruns on the CW.

Tuesday, ABC's HOMELAND SECURITY USA trailed UNI's CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL in A-18-49 & 18-34, while SCRUBS trailed FUEGO EN LA SANGRE in total viewers by 30,000 people.

Wednesday, CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL beat everything but AMERICAN IDOL in the demos during the first hour of prime time. A Katie Couris news special, a new KNIGHT RIDER, a rerun of last week's LOST and a repeat of PRIVELEGED were all dispatched by Spanish language telenovela.

And it's not like CIUDADO is a ratings blockbuster. It's winning with a 2.1 rating. The other nets can't make it to a 2 against IDOL? Ouch.

SANGRE bumped UNI's performance up to a 2.4 18-34 demo rating and beat a repeat of CRIMINAL MINDS, LAW & ORDER and 90210.

At 10/9c DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA beat LIFE ON MARS and a rerun of CSI: NY with a 1.6 rating in 18-34.

It doesn't end there.

Thursday, with a special edition of IDOL in the mix, it's more of the same.

CIUDADO came within one tenth of a point of catching a second place rerun of CRIMINAL MINDS in A18-49. In 18-34s, it beat CRIMINAL MINDS by a good 8 tenths. That's a substantial margin when 2nd place only scores a 2.3.

So what are we seeing here?

1) Network reruns have almost ZERO appeal to 18-34 year olds who are being trained by these very same networks to go online to catch episiodes the miss?

2) UNIVISION represents a growing Latino market. Not proven. UNI's success seems to have an upper limit. It's the other nets collapse that is the equalizer here.

3) IDOL destroys everything in its path when it coms to 18-34s. Not mentioned above are the 8s and 9s in 18-34 compared to everyone else's 2s and 1.5s

What do you think?

IDOL Coming Down to Earth?

In the past my favorite saying when it came to AMERICAN IDOL was "How high is up?"

The numbers were always astronomical and the question year after year was will this be the year IDOL slows down?

This year looks like it could be that year.

Numbers were down 10% for IDOL compared to last year - but I've got to say the show is already better than it has been in the past three seasons. It will be interesting to see if the slide holds true for Night 2.

The new judge, Kara is strong and opinionated - but also a gal pal for Paula. The editors have stayed true to their promise to focus on quality singers, with a bit less of the train wreck auditions - and I think it's working.

I'm very excited to see how Hollywood Week is portrayed. In two weeks we find out if the producers are actually able to capitalize on the inherent reality TV component of having 150 young adults fighting it out for 36 slots.

Oughta be a bit of back stage drama to mine.

Stay tuned.

The New American Idol

In Simon Cowell's book "I Don't Mean to be Rude, But..." he tells the behind-the-scenes story of getting AMERICAN IDOL on the air.

For starters, every network passed on the concept on the first lap. 'Cause network execs are geniuses.

But I digress.

Further examples of the genius of American television executives include their insistence on changing the formula of a proven television blockbuster. "Yeah, but do they have to sing? Could they be gymnasts? Could they have a dog? Could they brick layers?" Again, I digress.

One of the elements founding producer Nigel Lithgow insisted on was a panel of three judges.

The model requires Simon Cowell, who tells the cold hard truth, breaks the spirits of the breakable and challenges those who are unbreakable to be better than the know they can be. He's also one of the most successful finders of new talent in the industry.

Judge #2 should be a successful producer who knows the music business and knows what it takes to make a hit record. That's Randy.

Judge #3 should be someone who has been successful as a performer. That's Paula.

Sidebar: Simon was unimpressed with Paula at first, explaining American songwriters lacked energy, unlike say, Kylie Minogue's "Spinning Round." After Paula pointed out that she had CO-WRITTEN that song, she was in the club.

The other thing Lithgow fought to keep was the dual host format. He caved on that one in Year 2 and Brian Dunkleman is now hosting "Family Feud Live" in Las Vegas.

As IDOL progressed, the baboons slowly worked their way into the mix (see TV Shows Written by Baboons) and we began to see more and more Bad TV Creep - emphasis on bad contestants, and a drifting away from what should be one of the most compelling reality mini-series - Hollywood Week.

So this year, we're adding a fourth judge, Kara DioGuardi. She has a reputation for being tough and she's the other half of the team that wrote "Spinning Round." Is she a Paula backup? You bet she is. Are we straying from the original format by having a fourth voice on the judging panel. Not for long.

The other promising announcement for this season is a reduction on the emphasis on the untalented folks in the auditions, and extra episodes focusing on the backstage drama of Hollywood Week - both EXCELLENT ideas.

They're going to put more singers through from Hollywood Week to the first round, which means they're going to be cutting contestants at a pretty quick pace in the early weeks.

I, for one, think it all sounds like IDOL may be on track for a pretty damnged good season.

What say you?

TV's Top 10 of 2008

Without too much thought put into it, here's my Top 10 list of TV shows from 2008.

AMERICAN IDOL - Love it. Not as good as in years past, but improvements are coming in 2009.

LOST - Now that the producers know when the series will end, the filler episodes are gone and this show is flying at warp speed.

BREAKING BAD - Love Bryan Cranston. Love him. He is a fearless actor - just look at the risks he took during the run of MALCOLM IN THE MIDDLE. Aaron Paul's performance as Jesse is equal to Cranston's - which is saying something.

MAD MEN - Love the languid, yet taught pace, the attention to detail. This year it became clear that the nuclear family the advertising geniuses are pushing on the public is even more foreign to them than it is to us. You know you're a hot property when THE SIMPSONS send up your show intro.


PUSHING DAISIES - The abbreviated first season was far superior to the second. Brilliant art direction and a self-contained universe free of modern technology made this an instant favorite. As the show progressed, that self-contained universe began to fray a bit at the edges and the second season saw a darker, less whimsical texture but this one will be missed. Three episodes remain unaired, then it's done.

HOUSE - Same story week in and week out - but I don't care.

LATE LATE SHOW WITH CRAIG FERGUSON - His monologues are a different creature from anything else on TV. Craig isn't afraid to talk about his demons or his pride in being a naturalized American citizen. His show that followed the passing of his mother was heart-breaking, personal and brave. He will no doubt benefit from the 2009 late night re-rack over at NBC.

SUPERNATURAL - You can tell a lot of X-FILES veterans are involved in this show (Kim Manners rocks!). It has the same gritty, creepy flavor that helped every episode of THE X-FILES look like a mini-movie. The Winchester brothers have never been better.

SMALLVILLE - What? Really? Smallville? Yep. This show is so much better than it was three years ago. As someone who someday hopes to create a TV series it pains me to say that this show has vastly improved with the departure of its original show runners. Maybe it's luck, but their departure, along with the loss of Lex Luthor and Lana Lang and Clark's relocation to metropolis have all combined to make this show more grown up, much more palatable and better written.

SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE - This is THE dance competition to watch. Great summer programming, filled with folks who have danced all their lives. It's amazing stuff.

What's on your list? (There are very few wrong answers.) Show you list, defend your choices!

Idol Down, But Fox Still Wins

Much was made in the industry trades this spring that AMERICAN IDOL's ratings were down this season. While the finale's numbers were on par with last year, the ratings for the run up to the final showdown were, indeed down.

But somehow all the gleeful naysayers managed to miss something rather important in TV land.

FOX as a whole was UP for the season - and not just because it aired the Super Bowl. Scripted fare like BONES and HOUSE mixed with smartly programmed stuff like MOMENT OF TRUTH and ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A 5TH GRADER more than made up for IDOL's slippage.

For the first time EVER, FOX finished a season #1 in total viewers. Now, there were plenty of factors in the victory, not the least being the writers' strike. But - FOX had to deal with it just like every other network. And they did a better job by going to their bench and developing imaginative game shows.

While CBS relied heavily on reruns of their scripted dramas, FOX threw in new shows like NEW AMSTERDAM and THE SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES.

And they won - without airing a single episode of 24.

Congrats to everyone at FOX. It took 20 years, but the revolution has finally arrived.

The tough news for the other nets for 2008-2009? Jack Bauer returns in November with a 2 hour TV movie, followed by 24 all-new hours starting January.

And word is, he's pissed.

Spring Comes Early for FOX

The numbers say it's spring, but there's eight inches of snow in my front yard....

Last year it didn't happen until mid-March.

We all knew it was going to happen again this year, but I doubt anyone thought it would happen before Super Bowl Sunday.

On the strength of a better than normal fall performance, decent but not Earth-shattering numbers for the BCS, an explosive debut for TERMINATOR: THE SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES, the return of AMERICAN IDOL and stellar numbers for the NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (dude - a 40 share in A18-49!) which drew almost 50 MILLION viewers, FOX has taken over the #1 slot in A18-49.

With 36 hours of IDOL still to come, the debut of a scandalous game show, THE MOMENT OF TRUTH coming tomorrow, oh - and that SUPER BOWL thing next Sunday, the other nets can only wave in FOX's rear view mirror.

See ya!

How Big Is IDOL?

There are TWO HOURS of original programming going up against IDOL tonight.

TWO. The finale of LOST.

NBC, CBS and even the CW are airing reruns all night long.

Duck and cover, baby. Duck and cover.

This. Is. American. Idol.

Tonight's the big night - the AMERICAN IDOL finale.

The IDOL producers have a gi-normous task ahead of the them if they hope to top last year's star-studded finale.

Some interesting things are going on in IDOL land.

Last week, HOUSE became the first show in IDOL history to build on IDOL's lead-in. Yep, Dr. House beat AMERICAN IDOL.

Last night, something far more curious occurred. FOX lost a night that included AMERICAN IDOL.

IDOL itself is off 15 percent versus last year. Plus, the finale of DANCING WITH THE STARS walloped the premiere of THE LOT. THE LOT lost 72 percent of the IDOL lead-in, then lost another 40 percent of the audience left at the half hour.

Not a good sign.

I did enjoy THE LOT though - especially the part when the contestants had to look under their seats to find out which log line they'd be pitching the next morning. Some good ideas for some fun films! Do check it out - before it gets shuffled off to the dollar theatre.

Back to IDOL.

My heart's pulling for Blake, but my head knows Jordin's going to be singing that generic ballad one more time tonight. I bet she cries at the end tonight, too.

BTW - did you notice Jordin DIDN'T cry when the clip was played back at the end of the show? Know why? IDOL uses footage of the previous night's rehearsal for the show recaps. It was very noticeable last night.

Enjoy.

Random Thoughts 050807

There may be SPOILERS ahead. Proceed with caution if you're not completely caught on your good TV watchin'.

May sweeps is upon us, but for myself, not nearly like it used to be.

GILMORE GIRLS is calling it a wrap in two weeks. Hope they go off into the sunset properly. This season seemed like so much filler, delaying the happy ending fans want by an entire calendar year for no other purpose than to waste TiVo space.

I'm enjoying THE RICHES. It's such a unique setting and I believe I would watch Eddie Izzard in just about anything (except for MY SUPER EX-GIRLFRIEND - cue Meatloaf "I can't do that!")

If I haven't mentioned it before, I recommend By Ken Levine - he wrote for M*A*S*H, CHEERS and FRASIER among others. He posts more regularly than I do - and he's a lot funnier. Every now and then he'll discuss some behind the scenes stuff from FRASIER or CHEERS - and sometimes he just vents about AMERICAN IDOL - just like 50% of all bloggers known to mankind.

I was stunned by what happened on tonight's 24. It sucked the life out of the last 15 minutes of the episode - literally. I was hoping to a lot more of Milo down the road.

I think maybe THE SIMPSONS is getting better lately. I caught Mrs. Kimosabe chuckling Sunday.

The producers of LOST have managed to convince Disney it's best to have a planned ending to the series, rather than go one season too long. Remember the final season of THE X-FILES? Not gonna happen to LOST. Three more semi-seasons, consisting of 16 episodes each. Expect LOST to return in Feb '08 and run without repeats through May.

Gotta admit - I got a bit excited seeing the SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE promo Sunday night. Made me miss Gretel a bit. Wave, Gretel!

Holy cow - I COMPLETELY forgot to go see SPIDER-MAN 3 this week. Apparently, I was responsible for the single unsold seat in America this weekend. $151 million. And it's still in the $100 million in red.

All I need is maybe $10,000 to shoot my movie. You know, if everyone who reads this blog contributed just $1, I'd only have to come up with $9,995 on my own....

Odds are, if you're reading this, you've read FIRST AVAILABLE - but just in case you're an agent looking to hire a brilliant new writer - but are willing to settle for me, here's a link to the script.

Gotta run - Hollywood calling now! Nope, just a telemarketer. Stupid caller ID. It never tells me when Hollywood calls...they are going to call - right?

Hello?

Hello?

Are the TV Gods Smiling?

First Sanjaya gets voted off AMERICAN IDOL. (Yay!)

Then Rosie O'Donnell decides $10 million over three years wasn't enough to stay on THE VIEW.

And Alec Baldwin has asked NBC to be allowed to quit 30 ROCK.

Now... if we could just do something about NBC CEO Jeff Zucker...

Random Thoughts: 041207

Some random TV thoughts....

It took 17 hours for Jack Bauer to shake off whatever it was the Chinese did to him. I was feeling a bit disappointed with this season of 24 - until Jack killed this season's bad guy with his bare hands. 24 has 'unjumped' the shark and The Jack Bauer Power Hour is back

Starting to get pumped up about DRIVE. Captain Tightpants (Nathan Fillion from FIREFLY) and ANGEL's Fred (Amy Acker) headline a pretty good looking cast in another Tim Minear project - that FOX will probably toss on the ash heap before its time. I hope not.

'TIL DEATH has had its season finale. It's still not a great show, but it's getting better. My guess is that it will be back next year.

Last Friday the History Channel aired PLANET OF THE APES. Huh? It worked. I watched the whole thing - plus the special about Giganticus/Sasquatch that followed.

There a marathon of Eddie Izzard's THE RICHES on FX this weekend. Check it out.

I'm going to wait one more episode to comment on THE SOPRANOS.

Next week - Sanjaya WILL be in the bottom three. But he won't go home until we're down to the Top 5.

I've started pulling for Blake.

It's been a long haul over the past month - no new episodes of GILMORE GIRLS, SMALLVILLE or HEROES. If it weren't for the new subscription to HBO - and all the movies I don't have time to watch - my TiVo would be very bored.

What's going on on your set? What are you watching? What are you NOT watching?

NYT Doesn't Get It

Over at Jelly Beenz, a New York Times reporter links AMERICAN IDOL and the 2000 election.

FOX Takes the Lead

Last year FOX passed ABC for the full season victory in Adults 18-49 with about three days left in the season.

That's akin to a NASCAR driver taking the lead for the first time with 2 laps left in the Daytona 500.

It's like Joe Montana driving the 49ers down the field with 30 seconds left in the game to score the game winning touchdown.

The point is, it was a last second lead change and it was a bit dramatic. The entirety of the broadcast industry could see it coming, the momentum was palatable.

This year, things are very different. After an early strong start, ABC has stumbled badly since the turn of the calendar year. CBS scored well with the Super Bowl, but couldn't even turn that powerhouse event into a February sweeps win. NBC hasn't been a contender all year long.

Last night FOX tied CBS for the lead in Adults 18-49. Tonight, on the strength of a two hour episode of AMERICAN IDOL, FOX will pass CBS for first place.

This lead change was every bit as predictable as last year, the momentum has been just as palatable. The difference is this year, it's happening at the end of the 3rd quarter. There are still eleven weeks left in the season and none of FOX's competitors have an answer for FOX's passing game.

By the two minute warning, not only are we going to be looking at a blowout - but it will be painfully clear that the competition has no answer for how to stop FOX next year.

This is the third straight year FOX will have won or tied for first place in Adults 18-49.

In sports terms - that's a dynasty, baby!

IDOL - Girls Club

First impression - not a true blonde in the bunch. Twelve interchangeable brunettes. Nothing striking, or remarkable in terms of appearance.

Second impression - the winner of AMERICAN IDOL is not going to be a guy.

The winner of AMERICAN IDOL is SABRINA SLOAN. If she brings it like that every week, no one else stands a chance. Even Xtina is probably worried about this girl...

LESLIE HUNT - better than I expected. A huskier voice than I thought would come out of that tiny person.

ANTONELLA BARBA - Apparently there are spicy pics of her full on party mode circulating around the Internet. After tonight, I don't think anyone at IDOL is going to care.

HALEY SCARNATO - Learn to breath, honey. One of my biggest peeves is a singer who can't finish a lyric phrase without taking a breath. It's a skill that can be learned. Take a class.

ALAINA ALEXANDER - makes me yearn for the days of that horrid teenage singer from Hawaii. I'll have to ask Gretel what her name was..... Gretel?

GINA GLOCKSEN - Powerful, but cracky. Still Sabrina's to lose.

LAKISHA JONES - Damn! Why didn't any of the guys show this kind of confidence? Great performance - where does she go from here? (I think Sabrina's got more versatility and marketability.)

Note to Brendon Rogers - body language while in the dog pound is important. My TiVo caught Brendon crossing his arms in defiance while Simon was praising Sabrina (and dissing the boys at the same time). Gotta pretend to be a happy camper, buddy - or you'll go home sooner than you expect.

We'll see tomorrow - and remember to stick around for the very last O.C. ever.

IDOL - Boys Club

So, I've finally had time to watch last night AMERICAN IDOL. The top 12 guys went at it, Seacrest and Cowell pretended to fight and several guys gave strong evidence that they should not survive to the IDOL Top 12.

SUNDANCE HEAD - Dude is just NOT living up to his original audition. America's not going to cut you much slack. Better get it in gear 'cause Simon can't save you from here on out.

BLAKE LEWIS - The beat box guy can really sing! I thought he was by far the best singer of the night. He could win this whole thing.

SANJAYA MALAKAR - OK, so how long will he get by on his hair? The girls are gonna eat him up, his looks may get him past this week, but if he doesn't start singing, he's toast.

CHRIS SLIGH - Really like this guy, too. I loved the fact that he and Blake both sang non-traditional IDOL songs. They were too hip for the room, but I think they scored well with the voters.

EVERYONE ELSE - Feh. Not worth writing about.

Let's see what the girls bring tonight.....

IDOL - Up, Up and Away!

It seems we still don't know high "up" is.

The two night premiere of AMERICAN IDOL has redefined 'up' once again, delivering about 15% more eyeballs to sponsor messages than last year.

The numbers are simply gi-normous. 37 million folks. To give you some sort of scale, until this week DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES was the number one show on TV - delivering a mere 20 million viewers a week. IDOL isn't just #1, it's crossing the finish line while the other horses are entering the final turn.

The beastie out drew all the other networks combined.

Pity the poor CW. The FOX audience was 34 times larger than the CW.

One hour of IDOL = 34 hours of VERONICA MARS. That's more episodes than the show makes in a season. Granted, VERONICA was a re-run, but play along.

Following the above formula, if you were an advertiser who purchased a spot in every hour of IDOL for this season, you would have to buy VERONICA MARS once a week for 26 years to cume the same value.

26 years.

FOX Juggernauts Return

It's got to be tough to be a suit at NBC, ABC or CBS this time of year. They all have to know they have but one more week of normalcy to enjoy before their world turns upside down. Again.

(Cue the theme to JAWS)

Yep, it's January and that means it's time for "24" and "AMERICAN IDOL" to return.

The Jack Bauer Power Hour is back following what I felt was one of its most disjointed, yet accessible seasons. Day 5 saw the show tweak its formula a bit, killing off several key characters and devising more payoffs within the 24 episode storyline.

These changes allowed new viewers to better understand the goings on. Complicated backstories were dispatched along with their associated characters. The multiple resolutions within the overall arc also allowed new viewers better access. Ultimately, I believe it was this new-found accessibility that allowed Emmy voters to award the show with its Best Drama trophy.

Day 6 promises Jack's return from Chinese custody and an outbreak of domestic terrorism that has claimed over 1,000 lives. You can see an extended promo for Day 6 here.

And then there's that other beastie, lurking in the distance - "AMERICAN IDOL."

Last year, I had my doubts about the continued growth of the franchise, but was ultimately proven wrong. This year, I'm expecting even higher numbers due to ABC's moving "LOST" out of the way. ABC's sacrificing of "THE KNIGHTS OF PROSPERITY" and "IN CASE OF EMERGENCY" stands as a spineless move by a network that has strayed from a very promising path.

Tons of promotional stuff, including downloads of previous contestants' new releases are available at americanidol.com.

How high is up for FOX? This may be the year we find out.

Rantings of a TV Junkie

In no organized fashion other than the order things pop into my head... my impressions of TV as we wrap up 2006....

1. THE O.C. is back! This show is en fuego! Killing off Marissa Cooper has given the show new life - and it's a happy life. Gone are the endlessly morose, angst-driven storylines about how unhappy Marissa was. It's all been replaced by the perky, funny, pop-cult aware, snarkiness that fans fell for in Season 1. It's not too late to rediscover the fun!

2. LOST is taking its fans on a remarkable journey. I'm not trying to figure it all out. I'm not in the camp that's insisting on answers. Place me solidly in the 'I can't wait to see what happens next" camp. This may be the best series on TV right now.

3. HOUSE endures. How in the world the writers manage to make the same story work week after week is a mystery to me, but they do. Love it!

4. HEROES, the origin! Without a doubt, my favorite new show of the year. I hope the writers are able to take their time and advance the story at their own pace. No need to rush through the prime rib to get to the dessert.

5. There's too much NFL on TV. Yep, I said it. The addition of Thursday and Saturday games is too much. It's diluting the special-ness of Sunday afternoon.

6. IDOL and 24 are a comin'! I just have to figure out how to clear my Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays to make room for them....

7. STANDOFF deserves to come back. A great little show starring one of my favorite actors. I just hope FOX gives it another shot.

8. DRIVE takes off in March. A new series from Tim Minear (FIREFLY), starring Nathon Fallion (also FIREFLY) about an illegal race across the country in which the participants don't know their opponents. Hope it's as fun as Minear's other work!

Questions for '07...

Will the FCC allow more concentration of TV ownership? If so, it's over folks. Allowing fewer and fewer companies to own more and more of the TV we see is far from a good thing.

How high is up for IDOL? With the competitive landscape changed (i.e. LOST moves out of the way) will IDOL reach even higher number in '07?

Where is the next great 3 camera sitcom? It's out there. The suits will find it, it's just a matter of time. Blind pigs come to mind.

Will My Network abandon the telenovela? I think so. The truth is, 20th TV was already shopping those 65 episodes mini-series in syndication before parent company FOX TV (the stations not the network) found themselves losing their UPN affiliation. It was the only thing they had on the shelf to distribute to their stations as an ad hoc net. Look for Ultimate Fighting to follow. Maybe even some sort of poker. But no matter what, it's going to make the syndicated product of the early '80s look good.

I'm sure there's more, but that's al my poor little brain can spit out this afternoon...

Happy New Year to all!