Another Week, Another Bad Trend for Net TV

Something disturbing has developed in the world of network TV.

OK, so name a week when that sentence doesn't apply.

This week's pattern that has emerged is the rise of Univision. Or maybe not so much the rise of Univision, as the collapse of ABC and NBC to below Univision levels.

This past Monday the finale of SUPERSTARS OF DANCE and the second part of KNIGHTS TEMPLAR finished 5th in their time slots in Adults 18-49 and Adults 18-34. The good news is that NBC managed to beat reruns on the CW.

Tuesday, ABC's HOMELAND SECURITY USA trailed UNI's CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL in A-18-49 & 18-34, while SCRUBS trailed FUEGO EN LA SANGRE in total viewers by 30,000 people.

Wednesday, CIUDADO CON EL ANGEL beat everything but AMERICAN IDOL in the demos during the first hour of prime time. A Katie Couris news special, a new KNIGHT RIDER, a rerun of last week's LOST and a repeat of PRIVELEGED were all dispatched by Spanish language telenovela.

And it's not like CIUDADO is a ratings blockbuster. It's winning with a 2.1 rating. The other nets can't make it to a 2 against IDOL? Ouch.

SANGRE bumped UNI's performance up to a 2.4 18-34 demo rating and beat a repeat of CRIMINAL MINDS, LAW & ORDER and 90210.

At 10/9c DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA beat LIFE ON MARS and a rerun of CSI: NY with a 1.6 rating in 18-34.

It doesn't end there.

Thursday, with a special edition of IDOL in the mix, it's more of the same.

CIUDADO came within one tenth of a point of catching a second place rerun of CRIMINAL MINDS in A18-49. In 18-34s, it beat CRIMINAL MINDS by a good 8 tenths. That's a substantial margin when 2nd place only scores a 2.3.

So what are we seeing here?

1) Network reruns have almost ZERO appeal to 18-34 year olds who are being trained by these very same networks to go online to catch episiodes the miss?

2) UNIVISION represents a growing Latino market. Not proven. UNI's success seems to have an upper limit. It's the other nets collapse that is the equalizer here.

3) IDOL destroys everything in its path when it coms to 18-34s. Not mentioned above are the 8s and 9s in 18-34 compared to everyone else's 2s and 1.5s

What do you think?

Craig Gets a Makeover

So they've tweaked TEH LATE LATE SHOW WITH CRAIG FERGUSON. Again.

Monday, following a week long run of encores telecasts, the program opened with something new - a full screen graphic featuring an owl and a "What Will We Learn on the Show Tonight, Craig?" jingle.

Ferguson then did two minutes whilst hiding his upper lip and the piddly excuse for a mustache he had grown over the weekend. Don't get me wrong - it was hilarious.

What I found not so funny was this - CBS has tweaked Ferguson's show format again.

After his two minute teaser, we were treated to a sponsor billboard and three minutes of commercials - followed by the official open of the program.

Just a bit screwy, if you ask me. I couldn't tell if the rest of the show had fewer breaks, longer segments or what - but it contained about 45 minutes of the wackiest comedy about mustaches I had ever personally witnessed.

The commercial break included some local spots, so it looks like it might be an attempt to move those spots into a more favorable, higher viewed part of the show - but it really gets in the way of the flow of the show.

Do not like.

As for Ferguson himself, things got even sillier Tuesday. His mustache (Rudy) pretty much took over the show, and yet Ferguson seemed to grow bored with the concept as the show continued on.

By Wednesday, Craig had shaved and the silliness was about other stuff - but just as silly.

If you've never stayed up late for Craig, program your electronic TV show recording devices and give it a shot. It doesn't matter what time of day or night you watch - it's laugh out loud silly stuff.

Did I mention it's silly?

Silly enough to make me look forward to the day when Letterman retires and Ferguson gets to step up to the 10:35 slot.

Upfront and Personal

So the networks are wrapping up their upfront sessions in which they sell a large chunk of their advertising time to gi-normous ad agencies.

The income for the five big nets (yes, The CW apparently still qualifies) totals some $9.23 billion. That's right billion - with a B.

That number got me to thinking.

In the coming age, where DVRs skip over commercials and more and more of the network programming is becoming available online (bypassing the local stations), one wonders how much longer the networks are going to be able to continue to demand that much money for an ever dwindling audience.

Case in point: In the most recent TV season (yes, there was a strike - but still!) all of EIGHT scripted shows increased their audience vs. 2007:
DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (+3%);
THE UNIT (+1%);
LAW & ORDER (+19%);
THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (+1%);
MEDIUM (+21%);
BONES (+2%);
KING OF THE HILL (+20%)
30 ROCK (+12%)

Note that two of those shows are old-timers that were helped in the doldrums of the strike by a combination of reduced competition and better time slots. The results for MEDIUM are probably the most promising on the list.

So shy do the advertisers keep paying increasing rates for this slipping medium? Because it's the best there is, that's why.

It was announced today that the average household in the USA gets over 100 channels on their TV. You can advertise online to your heart's content, but there's no way you're ever going to get as broad and instantaneous a reach online - even if there are billions of web pages out there.

And for those of you who are complaining about all those commercials... the money ponied up by those sponsors is the equivalent of a $6.99 monthly subscription from each and every of the 100,000,000 TV households in the nation. (HBO has 40 million subscribers)

Good luck getting me to pay for any package that includes CBS.

It's Over for Three

And the first three fatalities of the new TV season are:

ONLINE NATION - The CW - a review of the hottest stuff you can find online - which you can find online - without having to sit through annoying hosts and commercials....

NASHVILLE - FOX - A bad attempt at a reality documentary that wasn't very real. MTV would have canceled this one - and they'll air anything.

VIVA LAUGHLIN! - CBS - COP ROCK goes to Vegas - with worse results.

Someone cue the logo lady - "It's Over" for them.

Who's next?

Tony v. Tonys - Tony Wins

The results are in in the Tony vs. Tonys showdown.

Broadway's best averaged a tepid 6.2 million viewers from the 110 million households that receive CBS.

THE SOPRANOS drew 11.9 million viewers from among the 30 million households in the HBO universe.

If one were to extrapolate the HBO universe out to national levels, THE SOPRANOS audience would have been equivalent to about 43.6 million viewers.

It wasn't even close.

Even at 11.9 million, THE SOPRANOS scored higher ratings than every other show on American TV this week except for AMERICA'S GOT TALENT.

Oh, and do you hear anyone talking about the way the Tonys ended? David Hyde-Pierce could have paraded on stage naked and no one would be talking about anything other than "Cut to black, roll credits."

Tony v. Tonys

Way back in the day, when the world was still broadcast in living black and white, Broadway supplied television with some of the most popular programming available.

Huge numbers were racked up by live televised versions of things like Rogers & Hammerstein's Cinderella, or specials featuring the best of the Great White Way.

Tonight, CBS airs the 61st Annual Tony Awards. Last year, all of 7.8 million people tuned in. The big winner was "Jersey Boys."

Also tonight, the curtain falls on one TV's most impactful made-for-premium cable shows - THE SOPRANOS. 7.7 million tuned in for the season premiere last month.

It's Tony Soprano vs. the Tony Awards.

Which telecast will feature the most drama? Which will draw the larger audience? Which will we remember this time next year?

I think I know the answers. Jersey Boys all the way. As for that awards show?

Fuhgetaboutit.

FOX Takes the Lead

Last year FOX passed ABC for the full season victory in Adults 18-49 with about three days left in the season.

That's akin to a NASCAR driver taking the lead for the first time with 2 laps left in the Daytona 500.

It's like Joe Montana driving the 49ers down the field with 30 seconds left in the game to score the game winning touchdown.

The point is, it was a last second lead change and it was a bit dramatic. The entirety of the broadcast industry could see it coming, the momentum was palatable.

This year, things are very different. After an early strong start, ABC has stumbled badly since the turn of the calendar year. CBS scored well with the Super Bowl, but couldn't even turn that powerhouse event into a February sweeps win. NBC hasn't been a contender all year long.

Last night FOX tied CBS for the lead in Adults 18-49. Tonight, on the strength of a two hour episode of AMERICAN IDOL, FOX will pass CBS for first place.

This lead change was every bit as predictable as last year, the momentum has been just as palatable. The difference is this year, it's happening at the end of the 3rd quarter. There are still eleven weeks left in the season and none of FOX's competitors have an answer for FOX's passing game.

By the two minute warning, not only are we going to be looking at a blowout - but it will be painfully clear that the competition has no answer for how to stop FOX next year.

This is the third straight year FOX will have won or tied for first place in Adults 18-49.

In sports terms - that's a dynasty, baby!

FOX: The Head of the Class

By my calculations, FOX is about to something that's never been done - again.

Since the Super Bowl has been played during the February sweeps, the network carrying it has always cruised to an easy sweeps win (A18-49). Not this time.

The launch of ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A 5th GRADER (which is by no means 'important television') has been so strong - the strongest series launch for FOX since 1994 - that the net has managed to catch up with CBS.

Sometime about 9PM Central, I think FOX passed them by - not by much, and not until the final day of the sweep, but the math says Rupert wins again.

SMARTER is a whole lot of fluff wrapped around about 5 minutes of entertainment, but unlike DEAL OR NO DEAL, it only runs for 30 minutes. Jeff Foxworthy makes a decent game show host. He knows his show and seems to be having a good time.

The kids are overly precocious child actors and the contestants must have to come in under 80 on an IQ test, but this thing is way more watchable than another round of THE SIMPLE LIFE.

The show's ratings will likely come down to Earth when FOX moves it to Thursdays at 8/7c in April. It will also expand to an hour, making it twice the fluff wrapped around twice the entertainment (10 minutes and hour!)

CBS Gets a 'C'

In retrospect, CBS's coverage of Super Bowl XLI was cold and impersonal, which somehow seems to be what I expected.

As the game wound down, the end no longer in doubt, CBS chose to ignore the multitude of personal stories taking place on the sidelines. There were no shots of Colts teammates congratulating each other, no shots of Bears players realizing their shot at the championship was slipping through their hands.

Instead, the announcers droned on about what was happening on the field - which to a football fan was pretty much irrelevant from about the 4 minute mark of the 4th quarter.

It's just another example of how square and clunky CBS is in the 21st century broadcasting world.

Apart from the Colts, the only other 2nd half winner I saw was the NFL. Their fan-written spot about how hard it is to say goodbye got a decent boost from some professional folks who spiffed up the original concept a bit - and throwing in a shot of Brett Favre was very nice.

Congrats to the Colts!

Now, I'm off to prep my resume for the GoDaddy Marketing team!

Super Bowl XLI: 1st Half

Through halftime:

Winners:

Prince! He was literally singing in Purple Rain. He's a queer bird and has a rep for being a demanding performer. But he stuck it out, gave a helluva a show in horrible conditions - and he was NOT lip synching. Most excellent!

Manning. Weather related slop aside, he took command of the game mid-way through the first quarter.

Chevy. Their spot featuring Chevy in classic American pop songs was smart.

Sprint. Connective dysfunction. Very clever.

Losers:

Grossman. Two fumbles snaps. Apart from one long run the Chicago offense has been non-existent.

Budweiser. Their series of spots have been uninspired and sophomoric. Nothing really clever there at all.

Careerbuilder.com. I miss the monkeys.

CBS. I'm watching in glorious Hi-Def, but the action is too far away from the camera for me to see any of the details hi-def should be bringing me.

Time for the second half....

This Commercial Brought to You by CBS

Wow. CBS is really whoring up it's Super Bowl pre-game show. I don't think I've ever seen such blatant product placement in a sports show. The first hour was presented by the new Eddie Murphy NORBIT - which means footage from the film was intercut with clips of the Colts and the Bears in the open.

Stuff like that has been happening for quite a while, but I still hate it.

Hour two was presented by Pizza Hut, which resulted in James Brown, Dan Marino and company actually eating a Cheesy Bites pizza from their desks.

I know commercial sponsorships are an important part of the broadcast, but this year, I think maybe CBS has gone too far.

As for the game - well, the last time the Bears played in the Super Bowl, Walter Peyton got a ring - his only one. This year, the Bears are back, but it's Peyton MANNING who's getting the gold.

My guess - Colts 27, Bears 10.